Recent content by TommyIV

  1. TommyIV

    September AutoTracker Trends

    As we move into the back half of September, the AutoTracker leaderboard shows a clear divide between the month’s strongest performers and the broader group of active members. Twenty-five members have managed returns of 2.5% or better so far. Nearly all of them are leaning heavily on stocks...
  2. TommyIV

    S Fund

    Since the release of the FOMC's monetary policy an hour ago, the DWCPF (S-fund) has touched an intraday return of over 1.6% and is now in 0.3% deep in negative territory.
  3. TommyIV

    Interest rate changes

    Fed Cuts Rates by Quarter Point and Signals More Are Likely Jerome Powell's press conference is taking place now.
  4. TommyIV

    Rate cut is expected today, but what will the Fed say about future cuts?

    Quickly, we've experienced some whiplash action intraday. Fed Cuts Rates by Quarter Point and Signals More Are Likely
  5. TommyIV

    Consumer Price Index (CPI)

    The new CPI was expected and hardly alarming, but it reinforces the Fed’s dilemma. Inflation remains sticky above target just as labor market data show signs of deterioration. That combination keeps rate-cut timing tricky: too aggressive risks losing credibility on price stability, while too...
  6. TommyIV

    Oracle helped the S&P and Nasdaq, but it was a mixed day

    No help from Oracle today. The stock is down more than 3% in the first half hour of trading.
  7. TommyIV

    Apple

    The 68 stocks that make up the technology sector of the S&P 500 are up 1.8% today collectivley. That is with help from Oracle's 36.0% gain today and only 33 of the 68 tech stocks were in postive territory today. Apple was near the bottom of the returns list with its stock price dropping 3.3%...
  8. TommyIV

    Gold 2025

    Anybody follow Tom's intuition? As of yesterday, Gold is up more than 8% since his post on Aug 13. This morning it is getting another boost from rising geopolitical tensions.
  9. TommyIV

    August Contest In Progress

    That grew quickly. Yesterday the C and S-fund provided their investors modest gains while the I-fund took a slight loss for the day. Now 12 members are outperforming the I-fund through August. Where are these 12 allocated now and where were they at the end of July? The current average...
  10. TommyIV

    August Contest In Progress

    After the I-fund controlled the August standings for most of the month, the leaderboard finally shifted yesterday—and things just got interesting. With only three trading days left in August, five AutoTracker members have now pulled ahead of the I-fund’s monthly return. Four of those five...
  11. TommyIV

    The Tariff Talk

    Some might say the effect of tariffs on inflation is… transitory. I get the argument, but framing it as a “one-time shift” feels too simplified. In reality, the impact doesn’t just hit once and vanish. As companies adjust, they’re likely to gradually pass their higher costs onto consumers...
  12. TommyIV

    Jackson Hole 2025

    On Tariffs "The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts. The question that matters for monetary policy is whether these price increases are likely to materially raise...
  13. TommyIV

    Who is in the I-fund?

    Almost through Wednesday’s trading session, the I-fund is on track to deliver a modest gain of about 0.1%, while C and S-fund investors are staring at losses of roughly 0.5%. With less than three hours until the close, the message is clear: the I-fund continues to outpace its U.S. counterparts...
  14. TommyIV

    The Tariff Talk

    Why Haven’t Tariffs Boosted Inflation? This Theory Is Gaining Traction If you entertain the idea in this article, that tariffs have yet to unfold their full effect on inflation, then you may also put yourself at odds the current price of the stock market. "Barclays research suggests that...
  15. TommyIV

    Warren Buffett

    Imagine being such a market force that the act of buying stock in a company sends your new shares up 13% in a single day. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Further Pares Stake in Apple, Adds UnitedHealth Position
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