Recent content by TommyIV

  1. TommyIV

    December Contest In Progress

    After four trading days, only BHRUNIKH remains in the Top 5 of the standings holding 100% I-fund. Right behind them is Pickles, who has had the most success in the AutoTracker Monthly Contests this year. Pickles sits in 100% S-fund today. REAPER is with BHRUNIKH in the I-fund while EWB...
  2. TommyIV

    December Contest In Progress

    The C-fund price established new all-time highs on Thursday, but a sell-off Friday brought the large-cap stock fund into negative territory for December. Friday's price cuts were deeper for the S-fund and I-fund; however, the funds maintain December returns of over 1%. Seven members of the...
  3. TommyIV

    AI Mania and the Dot-Com Bubble

    The Eerie Parallels Between AI Mania and the Dot-Com Bubble This argument isn't new, but James Mackintosh of the WSJ puts a few comparisons side-by-side between the Dot-Com Bubble and the current state of the AI market: A few notable points: Current Valuations: Uncertainty: Investment...
  4. TommyIV

    Fed Talk

    The statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference seem far less hawkish than many anticipated. Although the Fed announced a rate cut, Powell emphasized that policy is moving closer to a theoretical “neutral” level, one that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. Even so, the...
  5. TommyIV

    New Highs Within Reach: How TSP Investors Are Positioned

    Stocks have spent the last two weeks enthusiastically retracing the price cuts of early November. Now the C-fund and S-fund sit within reach of new all-time highs. But how does the rapid recovery influence the forward-facing TSP investor? For the C-fund, Friday’s close at $109.83 marked its...
  6. TommyIV

    Using ETF’s as part of a portfolio

    I don't own any yet, but I've got my eye on SPYI (NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF). It’s an interesting buy-and-hold alternative to simply tracking the S&P 500 through SPY. SPYI mirrors the S&P 500’s equity exposure but adds an income overlay by selling call options on the index. That option...
  7. TommyIV

    November 2025 AutoTracker Winners!

    Great Returns! I broke down the winners' November IFT trends here.
  8. TommyIV

    Defensive but Ready: The November Playbook from TSP’s Top Performers

    Cash equipped TSP investors turned November’s mediocre returns into big gains. If you didn’t make any moves in November, the best return available came from the F-fund’s 0.6% return. Meanwhile, the Top 5 November performers added gains from 4.6% to 6.4% in November. Their common theme: Tactical...
  9. TommyIV

    Venezuela 🇻🇪

    "The U.S. has been flying simulated attacks against Venezuela using jet fighters and bomber aircraft in recent weeks, according to flight tracking data and a defense official. It has also been expanding its presence in the Caribbean to allow for an increased tempo in flight operations should...
  10. TommyIV

    November AutoTracker Trends

    Coming into today, nine AutoTracker members hold a better return than the F-fund's 0.43% gain through November: Average Allocation of Top November Nine: G 7.8% | F 2.8% | C 21.7% | S 50.6% | I 17.2% Three of which are among the Top 5 of the 2025 AutoTracker Standings. Check out the...
  11. TommyIV

    C-fund

    The S&P 500 has climbed above its 50-day EMA after a failed breakout earlier in the morning.
  12. TommyIV

    November Contest In Progress

    November has been a month favoring the cautious. Coming out of a volatile October, many expected the November's action to smoothen out some. That has not been the case and instead the volatile action has been coupled with a strong down trend. Coming into the day, the C-fund has dropped more than...
  13. TommyIV

    tsptalk's Market Talk

    From an enthusiastic morning to a sinking ship. The S&P 500 held a morning gain of 1.4% around the time of your post. It now holds a 0.6% loss ten minutes after the IFT deadline and is back below its 50-day EMA.
  14. TommyIV

    tsptalk's Market Talk

    Look what you've done :cautious: Maybe no one would have noticed it.
  15. TommyIV

    C-fund

    The S&P 500 price is slipping the deeper we get into the afternoon. At 2:23 PM ET the price of the S&P 500 is $6,668.72 facing Friday's low of $6,646.87. The index rebounded sharply Friday morning after hitting that price.
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