Recent content by oldschool

  1. O

    oldschool account talk

    going to 100 i today - today's news on oil suggests demand won't be so great in coming months, so maybe the "slowing" the central banks are looking for is already in process and further rate hikes around the world will come at us a little slower. So maybe the dollar down trend will slow a bit...
  2. O

    Playing the I fund

    tokyo equities down about 1% in early trading, dollar also down vs. yen and euro http://today.reuters.com/Investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2006-05-12T000122Z_01_T264752_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX.XML
  3. O

    Playing the I fund

    Japan's weighting in MSCI EAFE to go up slightly - see article at http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060511:MTFH16457_2006-05-11_05-21-42_T274041&symbol=8328.T&rpc=44
  4. O

    oldschool account talk

    Today, Wed., going to f 15%, i85% hoping markets bite on theory G7 thinks further dollar decline will cure all. see 7th paragraph in Financial Times article at http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d2d4e7a4-df47-11da-afe4-0000779e2340.html 'course Fed types might say that economy is stronger, so rates...
  5. O

    Playing the I fund

    Details on what sectors are up in Japan so far today... http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6d639436-de40-11da-af29-0000779e2340.html
  6. O

    Playing the I fund

    Good article on the dollar - Sweden selling dollars, article suggests bigger Euro central banks may start to follow... http://news.ft.com/cms/s/2a9dd5ac-d699-11da-b64c-0000779e2340.html
  7. O

    oldschool account talk

    "fun" maybe isn't exactly the sensation... Bernake forgot to check in with me before he announced the Fed might "pause"... The nerve of that guy.
  8. O

    oldschool account talk

    start to go away from the market? sell in may... let's see, 401k money came in in January, last minute ira money came in the last few weeks, hmm. Buyers all done? A little nudge towards caution seems warranted. Mr. Market may prove otherwise, we'll see...
  9. O

    Tally for March '06

    I agree it's really useful to track "who has the best strategy or luck" - and the longer the period of tracking, and the more consistent the tracked individual is about their strategy, the more meaningful tracking based on who has the best percentage gains. However, it seems to me the value of...
  10. O

    Playing the I fund

    Here's a link I like for its summary info on yen/euro/dollar. Scroll down and it shows major econ releases scheduled for the next 24 hours in the home countries of the major currencies. http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Even_Strong_US_Data_Fails_1146086103690.html
  11. O

    oldschool account talk

    Well, well. Houses are selling, consumers are happy, businesses are buying. Starting to look like more risk of higher interest rates. Think I'll nudge a bit towards safety today. Adding 15% to G, reducing F, C, and I by 5% each. After today's IFT will be G 25%, F 20%, C 30%, and I 25%...
  12. O

    Tally for March '06

    Maybe simply looking at monthly divergence from, say, the C fund might be a meaningful but cheap proxy for MDD? If so, that's pretty much in current tracker data. I agree MDD way to much to do as a daily matter.
  13. O

    Market Talk / April 23 - 29

    Even 44% is bad, for sure. Still though, I can't help but wonder what percent of the total outstanding mortgages are the bad ones. A while back Alan Greenspan (remember him?) said something to the effect that the vast majority of homeowners had enough equity cushion to absorb a fairly...
  14. O

    Tally for March '06

    I like system trader's idea of finding some way to recognize low levels of Maximum Draw Downs... Reveals how truely risky a trader's performance is over time, no?
  15. O

    Playing the I fund

    So the yen and euro go up, Japanese and Euro exporters decline. Hmm. What happens to US based exporters? What's the figure, something like 40% of S&P revenues from overseas? When those profits come back into USD, a nice pop in USD earnings. We'll see in about 6 months I suppose.
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