Recent content by JTH

  1. JTH

    📊 Stats: 1-Dec-2025

    Short and to the point. Day of Week Stats: We are enjoying a 5-Session win streak 1st Place Monday, from the past 60-Sessions, 119% of the returns came from Monday. 2nd Place Wed is on a 4-Session win streak, 3rd place Friday is good too. Thur is the worst performer, on a 4-Session lose...
  2. JTH

    Week 48 Recap - Short Week, Strong Finish

    ♗ Weekly Recap ● WTD Overview: Risk-on tone: SPX WTD +3.73% with broad gains across tiers and sectors, leadership wide not narrow. Equities, credit, and cyclic assets drew bids while cash built; dollar softened and equity volatility collapsed. Key Takeaway: Short-term regime is risk-on but...
  3. JTH

    JTH's Account Talk

    I moved into the C-Fund on Monday, but it's mostly a symbolic gesture at this point. This system I believe may prove useful within the TSP realm, as Slots tend to rotate quickly, but only 23% are a 1-Session transition. Most transitions occur within 4-6 sessions, with the max-session less than...
  4. JTH

    Pre-Bell ☕ 26-Nov-2025

    Pre-Bell ☕ Brief Time: 26-Nov-2025 08:01 (ET) 🗝️ Key Takeaway • US futures tick higher as Asia and Europe rally while traders face a dense data pack and a pivotal December Fed meeting.[1][2][6] 💤 What Moved Overnight • Asia - Risk-on tone with Japan and Korea up around +2.00% as soft US data...
  5. JTH

    Can the holiday week stop the bleeding in the stock market?

    Thanks Tom, sorta hard to believe all this noise for an SPX -5.76% 18-Session pullback, seems we shouda gone lower :(
  6. JTH

    📊 Stats: 24-Nov-2025

    Hard stats, short and to the point. Daily performance is on par with historical norms. Monday is dominant Last 3 Wed Up, last 4 Thur down. Trading Day of the Month stats, not a barn burner and statistically spotty at times. Still, the last 5 Trading Day 19 have closed up. Most...
  7. JTH

    Week 47 Recap - Risk-Off Returns

    ♗ Weekly Recap ● WTD Overview: Risk-off: SPX slipped −1.95% as growth, small caps, and global stocks trailed and leadership narrowed. Flows favored bonds and cash left crypto while defensives led, the dollar firmed, and volatility jumped. Key Takeaway: Risk-off holds unless long-end yields...
  8. JTH

    Blog: Outside Looking In

    With many of these stats I've shown this week, I would conclude now would be a good time to either buy, wait or run. 70% of me says to buy on the -5% pullback, 25% says to wait for a deeper cut, while 5% says to run and hide. We are missing some key features here, they just aren't present at...
  9. JTH

    tsptalk's Market Talk

    This will be the 4th Down Thursday in a row. About a -5.32% loss over these last 4.
  10. JTH

    Pre-Bottom ☕ 20-Nov-2025

    The 63-Session Standard Deviation Low has breached Std-Dev -3 the lower Orange Band for the past 4-Consecutive sessions. Excluding Nov-2025 this has happened 7 times in 20 years (depending on where the streak ends) If the streak ends at 4, then the 3-Session Post Performance Win ratio was 43%...
  11. JTH

    Pre-Bell ☕ 19-Nov-2025

    That 50% stat is the last 21 days of OptX going back 21 Months, most fell on a Friday, Apr Fell on a Thur, and yea technically they expire the next day, so the table should be called Options Stop Trading, but that's a funny sounding name :0 The Usually was a reference to the Apr Thursday, But...
  12. JTH

    Pre-Bell ☕ 19-Nov-2025

    New Stats
  13. JTH

    Pre-Bell ☕ 19-Nov-2025

    Pre-Bell ☕ Brief Time: 19-Nov-2025 08:26 (ET) 🗝️ Key Takeaway • Futures are modestly higher after a choppy selloff, with Nvidia and Fed minutes set to steer the next move.[1][2][8] 💤 What Moved Overnight • Asia - indexes slipped again as traders stayed cautious ahead of Nvidia earnings and US...
  14. JTH

    Where was the Monday rebound?

    Since 1963 SPX November has closed down 20 times, the following December closed up 17 times. Exceptions: 1969, 1974, 2007
  15. JTH

    A Rare November: 2007 Vibes

    These past two sessions have given us 2 back-to-back Bottom 5% Deviations off the 63-Session Linear Regression Channel. Typically these events cluster in scattered pockets and streaks. A consecutive streak of 2 is the most common for the Bottom 5% From 5040 Sessions, since this is a Bottom...
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