Recent content by JTH

  1. JTH

    JTH's Account Talk

    While the S&P 500 is at the bottom of it's 3-Week Price Range, the Mid-90 and Bott-403 are in the middle. Is it breadth rotation? It does look like the Mega Large Caps are taking profits as we finish the year. Another notable event, while the Index lost -1.16% off Wednesday's session, the...
  2. JTH

    JTH's Account Talk

    After reading Tom's Blog, I thought I'd crank out a Monthly High/Low Chart for December, since I was curious and thought it may prove useful as I close out some positions early next year. With only 20 years in my current dataset, it would be unfair to target just one Top & Bottom session, so I...
  3. JTH

    📊 Stats: 15-Dec-2025

    An active week, for additional BLS & Holiday stats see previous blog. 📊 Stats: Closing Out 2025 16-Dec Nonfarm Payrolls 18-Dec Consumer Price Index 19-Dec Friday expect above average volume, as Options are set to expire. Volume in December Prior to Options Expiration (Pre -1) is usually in the...
  4. JTH

    Week 50 Recap - Mega-Caps Drag, Breadth Holds

    ♗ Weekly Recap ● WTD Overview: Risk-off: SPX −0.63%, but breadth was mixed as Mid-90 +0.16% and Bott-403 +0.23% stayed green. Key Takeaway: If long bonds stabilize and volatility cools, risk can broaden beyond the Top-10. $↗︎ Net Flows $↘︎ — Wednesday Series ● Fund Inflows — Wednesday Series...
  5. JTH

    JTH's Account Talk

    In late 2024 some of my statistical studies concluded 2026 was going to be a tough year. Problem is I can't remember why, but I'm sure some of it had to do with the 2nd Year of the Presidential Cycle. But for 2026 we have 2 basic choices, either you think the economy is tanking or the the...
  6. JTH

    📊 Stats: Closing Out 2025

    Since the anticipation is for a Rate Cut, here's the extended outlook. The 2nd Session after the rate Cut, has good odds. 9 of these 17 Rate Cuts were -.25% 6-Fwd (6-Session Performance after the rate cut) has unusually low performance. Both 6-Fwd & 9-Fwd have very low win ratios, but with a...
  7. JTH

    Get ready for the Fed to make or break the recent rally

    Would love a Hike, but would settle for a Hold
  8. JTH

    Jobs Report delayed.

    2013's 16-Day Fed Shutdown delayed the ECI/CPI/PPI During 2018's 35-Day Fed Shutdown BLS was funded, thus all the major reports were released. During 2025's 43-Day Shutdown, BLS was unfunded, thus the reports will be delayed or canceled.
  9. JTH

    📊 Stats: Closing Out 2025

    The BLS Chart was revised, the Pre & Post were reversed (n), sorry about that Today's ECI has pretty much the same stats for all 3 sessions, so it's a wash on that issue. Also the All Fed Funds portion was reversed, but the Hold/Cut/Hike was fine. Anywho here's the Last 9 of December & first 9...
  10. JTH

    📊 Stats: Closing Out 2025

    Statistically speaking, and partially due to the data delay caused by Fed shutdown, this might be one of the busiest phases of the year(s). December enters a heavy data gauntlet: ECI, FOMC, NFP, and CPI all hit before trading thins. Once we get past the Friday 15-Dec Pre-OPEX, (the last...
  11. JTH

    📊 Stats: 8-Dec-2025

    Day of Week Stats: Across 63-Sessions Monday continues to dominate, with a 83% Win Ratio and .60% average return. Wednesday rides a 5-Session win streak Across 252-Sessions Wednesday earns the most green. Mon-Wed have earned 26.44% while Thur-Fri have lost -11.49% When we evaluate Trading...
  12. JTH

    Week 49 Recap - The Employment Delay

    Stay tuned, more stats will be coming out this week, we'll cover the entire Dec/Jan transition. BLS Data: The Quarterly ECI - Employment Cost Index releases on Wednesday 10-Dec-2025, the normal release was set for October. From the 80+ I have on record this is the first delay since Oct-2013...
  13. JTH

    JTH's Account Talk

    Off Thursday's Close we moved from Slot-2 down to Slot-5 due to a logic flip in Breadth Sync. Of the 85 moves into Slot-5, 25 were for 1 session, and Slot-5 take's up the bulk, nearly 40% of all 1-sessions slots. Probabilities, favor the next transition will be back into Slot-2
  14. JTH

    JTH's Account Talk

    Not much to report, if you haven't noticed, volume has been low over the past 5-Sessions. There are 4 Primary months where volume is low, Jul-Sep, and December. Sometimes this low volume phase floats deeper into the Mid-Jan MLK Holiday, but not consistently. From my data and historical...
  15. JTH

    📊 Stats: 1-Dec-2025

    Short and to the point. Day of Week Stats: We are enjoying a 5-Session win streak 1st Place Monday, from the past 60-Sessions, 119% of the returns came from Monday. 2nd Place Wed is on a 4-Session win streak, 3rd place Friday is good too. Thur is the worst performer, on a 4-Session lose...
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