07/09/25
It was day two of post holiday trading, and it went almost according to the plan - the seasonality chart, that is. Internally stocks did quite well despite the losses in the Dow and S&P 500. Small caps and the I-fund led on the upside after Monday's big losses. Yields and the dollar were up again, but both closed well off their highs.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
Most stocks were up yesterday despite the losses in the Dow and S&P 500 yesterday. Trading volume was also quite positive, so while yesterday looked like a flat to negative day if you just look at the big 3 indices, it was actually a nice comeback for stocks after Monday's sell off.
The seasonality chart surrounding July 4th is still in play as day # +2 (Tuesday) was another weaker day, and if the chart continues to lead the way, today (day +3) could bring back the bulls.
Outside of the holiday, the daily seasonality calendar for July shows things should get better in the coming days, particularly in the percentage of times positive, but perhaps after the 14th it will flip over again? Of course seasonality IS NOT a primary indicator, especially once we get past some of the major holidays, but this consistency of being positive about 70% of time on the 12th thru 14th is tough to ignore. The bad news: July 12th and 13th fall on Saturday and Sunday this year.
That mid-month jump and dump could be earnings related as we will start seeing some of the major banks reporting second quarter earnings early next week.
With all of the tariff nonsense going on - the back and forth, inconsistencies, and the media's hyperbolic coverage, I'm trying to keep things simple with the charts and that seasonality calendar. It can help filter out the noise.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) slid sideways yesterday and last Thursday's gap was revisited for a second day. The lower rising support could come into play even if the S&P doesn't go down - but rather continues to move sides as that support has moved up near 6200 now. However, there is still a chance that the two red dashed converging support lines get tested.
The bulls are hanging tough. This could rollover and break below support for all we know, but it hasn't yet and that keeps those bulls in charge.
Some follow up to the sell off in the IWM (Russell 2000 small caps ETF) on Monday; the top of that channel has held as support again, which makes things nice and clean and technically sound. It could fail today, but as of now, it's doing what broken resistance often does - hold as support.
I'd say that this summer there will be a time to do some selling, but historically it's not this early in July. Of course nobody wants to be the last one out of stocks so sticking precisely to those seasonality charts may not work, but instead it can help as a general guide - be prepared for the bears to make a move between now and the end of the month, historically more toward the end of the month.
I just wanted to give a shout out to the four full year AutoTracker members who have returns over 20% this year. MRJ leads the pack with a gain of 30%. Those are some handsome returns for early July. Others are doing almost as well.
I often get asked by new readers of TSP Talk how someone could have a return that is higher than every single TSP fund, and the answer is, timing. The trick is to be out of stocks when they are falling, and in when they are going up. That's easier said than done, but it just takes a couple of well times trades to handily beat the indices and the TSP funds like those Autotracker leaders. If interested, our Last Look Report service will report to you when these leaders (and others) are making transactions.
Like the Russell 2000 (IWM) chart up top, the DWCPF / S-fund chart also tested its breakout zone and held, so far. Classic breakout action, but it's pretty obvious that this has come a long way in a short-time with very little backing and filling. The question is when does that happen? August and September would be ideal as they are typically weaker than normal months, but will they make it that easy for us market timers?
The ACWX (I-fund) was up despite more strength in the dollar. Again, it's the chart doing its job as the bottom of that channel continues to try to hold. There is an open gap near 59.25, but support will have to fail for that to get filled.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down yesterday but closed off the lows after a intraday turnaround. I would have preferred that it filled the open gap in the process, but for now it remains open and a possible target. Some technicians would considered that "good enough" on the fill.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk? Why not Tell a Friend about us? We'd really appreciate it, and they may too.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
It was day two of post holiday trading, and it went almost according to the plan - the seasonality chart, that is. Internally stocks did quite well despite the losses in the Dow and S&P 500. Small caps and the I-fund led on the upside after Monday's big losses. Yields and the dollar were up again, but both closed well off their highs.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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Most stocks were up yesterday despite the losses in the Dow and S&P 500 yesterday. Trading volume was also quite positive, so while yesterday looked like a flat to negative day if you just look at the big 3 indices, it was actually a nice comeback for stocks after Monday's sell off.
The seasonality chart surrounding July 4th is still in play as day # +2 (Tuesday) was another weaker day, and if the chart continues to lead the way, today (day +3) could bring back the bulls.
Outside of the holiday, the daily seasonality calendar for July shows things should get better in the coming days, particularly in the percentage of times positive, but perhaps after the 14th it will flip over again? Of course seasonality IS NOT a primary indicator, especially once we get past some of the major holidays, but this consistency of being positive about 70% of time on the 12th thru 14th is tough to ignore. The bad news: July 12th and 13th fall on Saturday and Sunday this year.
That mid-month jump and dump could be earnings related as we will start seeing some of the major banks reporting second quarter earnings early next week.
With all of the tariff nonsense going on - the back and forth, inconsistencies, and the media's hyperbolic coverage, I'm trying to keep things simple with the charts and that seasonality calendar. It can help filter out the noise.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) slid sideways yesterday and last Thursday's gap was revisited for a second day. The lower rising support could come into play even if the S&P doesn't go down - but rather continues to move sides as that support has moved up near 6200 now. However, there is still a chance that the two red dashed converging support lines get tested.
The bulls are hanging tough. This could rollover and break below support for all we know, but it hasn't yet and that keeps those bulls in charge.
Some follow up to the sell off in the IWM (Russell 2000 small caps ETF) on Monday; the top of that channel has held as support again, which makes things nice and clean and technically sound. It could fail today, but as of now, it's doing what broken resistance often does - hold as support.
I'd say that this summer there will be a time to do some selling, but historically it's not this early in July. Of course nobody wants to be the last one out of stocks so sticking precisely to those seasonality charts may not work, but instead it can help as a general guide - be prepared for the bears to make a move between now and the end of the month, historically more toward the end of the month.
I just wanted to give a shout out to the four full year AutoTracker members who have returns over 20% this year. MRJ leads the pack with a gain of 30%. Those are some handsome returns for early July. Others are doing almost as well.
I often get asked by new readers of TSP Talk how someone could have a return that is higher than every single TSP fund, and the answer is, timing. The trick is to be out of stocks when they are falling, and in when they are going up. That's easier said than done, but it just takes a couple of well times trades to handily beat the indices and the TSP funds like those Autotracker leaders. If interested, our Last Look Report service will report to you when these leaders (and others) are making transactions.
Like the Russell 2000 (IWM) chart up top, the DWCPF / S-fund chart also tested its breakout zone and held, so far. Classic breakout action, but it's pretty obvious that this has come a long way in a short-time with very little backing and filling. The question is when does that happen? August and September would be ideal as they are typically weaker than normal months, but will they make it that easy for us market timers?
The ACWX (I-fund) was up despite more strength in the dollar. Again, it's the chart doing its job as the bottom of that channel continues to try to hold. There is an open gap near 59.25, but support will have to fail for that to get filled.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down yesterday but closed off the lows after a intraday turnaround. I would have preferred that it filled the open gap in the process, but for now it remains open and a possible target. Some technicians would considered that "good enough" on the fill.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk? Why not Tell a Friend about us? We'd really appreciate it, and they may too.
Thanks!
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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